Ukraine is developin
g a “drowning not waving” problem. It is strugglin
g to say clearly how badly the war is going.
kraken2 Giving a candid public assessmen
t of how poorly a conflict is going can be an unwise move as it can result in morale and support draining. After Obama boosted troops in Afghanist
an, public support declined over the years, in part because of a lack of realism about how the war was going.
https://kraken-3.at kraken
Ukraine’s acutely bad presentat
ion of its troubles is mostly due to the myopia of its allies.
The lack of understan
ding in parts of US Congress is breathtak
ing. A congressm
an this week suggested Ukraine should name a finite price tag and a specific, simple goal. It’s staggerin
g after two American wars of choice in two decades, costing trillions of dollars, that congressi
onal memories are so short, and comprehen
sion so limited.
Instead, Kyiv consisten
tly points to past successes and future goals. They have reclaimed about half the territory Russia took last year; they have damaged its Black Sea presence strategic
ally. They have a plan for 2024, Zelensky said, but it is secret.
Yet in truth, the most useful headline for Kyiv should be how unutterab
ly bleak the frontline
s are for them now. In nearly every direction, the news is grim. Russian forces are hiving off parts of the eastern city of Avdiivka, yet another town Moscow seems content to throw thousands of lives at despite its minimal importanc
e. Along the Zaporizhz
hia frontline, where the counterof
fensive was focused but ultimatel
y slow and unrewardi
ng, Russian units have come back with renewed vigor and the defense is costly for Ukraine. Ukraine has made a plucky (or foolhardy) dash across the Dnipro River, with some small progress into Russian lines. The casualtie
s have been immense, their supply lines are problemat
ic, and their prospects dim.
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